Bearfruit

The PC world to this point has been severs, desktop computers and portable notebooks. This will remain true for a little while longer, but soon (as soon as 18 months) this will change for good.

In Bill Gate’s book, “The Road Ahead” he makes the statement, “People need to communicate and be entertained, they don’t need to compute.” This quote has stuck with me for years because of its simplicity, because of its accuracy and because it goes against what many of us computer lovers feel.

Think about common computer tasks - communicate via email, look up maps or directions on the web, share photos and videos, buy stuff, get information, play games. Now which of these tasks are hard to do with an iPhone or other portable device? Typing out a long email or having a lengthy chat can be arduous on such a small device but its getting easier.

Now think about what device you’d rather have for doing the above kinds of things… a 6 - 9lb (2.5 - 4kg) notebook or would you rather having a 1lb or less device that you can slip into your pocket and also use as a cell phone? (read more for some fascinating quotes)

You’re probably thinking, “well, I’d like to have an iPhone (or whatever) that could do all of that, but I couldn’t imagine giving up my main PC.” You’re right, I couldn’t give up my PC either, but my wife would. My son could care less if it were a PC or a mobile device.

The manufacturers of PCs realize this and are dumping tons of resources trying to be the leader in these new markets. From Eeepc like mini-pcs to Nokia N series/MID hybrid devices and iPhone/Instinct like mobile devices - the device we currently call the PC is getting smaller and every manufacturer knows it.

The mainstream “PC” of 2010 will be under 1Kg and the only place you won’t take it is the swimming pool.

From the above article there are a few grabbing quotes:

Toshiba Corp of Japan, in fourth place, has “…little interest in leading a price-cutting competition, but also little choice but to join it,” according to Shigeyoshi Shimotsuji

A high-level manager at one of these Taiwan outsourcers said: “We can’t afford to worry about how this might impact any existing notebook PC business. We’re committed, because this could well grow into an enormous market. And we can’t survive future competition unless we grab a piece of it now.

The “common sense” of the PC industry no longer applies, however, for two major reasons. The first reason is that computing performance, function and other characteristics need not be cutting-edge. Most consumers only need performance sufficient to provide access to Web-based content, services and other assets. This same point is suggested by the way that Windows Vista, released in 2007, totally failed to generate significant replacement demand.

(emphasis added)

Recognizing the potential size of the market, Microsoft has made the decision to continue offering Windows XP Home Edition to compact, lightweight PCs. The original strategy was to switch entirely over to Windows Vista. A high-level manager at one domestic PC manufacturer suspects the decision was made in an effort to prevent the spread of Linux machines.

For PC manufacturers hoping to slash parts cost, actions by Intel, Microsoft and other firms are not as important as the fact that there is less and less need to use their products. The goal, remember, is to provide performance sufficient for Internet access. For manufacturers, this objective means a wider range of component choices, possibly at lower cost. By utilizing less expensive components from vendors other than Intel and Microsoft, they increase the pressure on those firms to cut prices.

“If the operating system (OS) doesn’t need to emphasize business use, Linux is a good choice, because its graphical user interface (GUI) software is quite mature. Retailers and contract manufacturers in Taiwan say that novice PC users there, like students and housewives, tend to buy the Linux version of the Eee PC701, while geeks go for Windows XP. The Linux version comes with a launcher providing pre-installed applications, Web services and other features at a click. The design was probably adopted to make the system even easier to use.”

(end quotes, sorry, apparently my site is butchering block quotes at the moment)

The consumer looking for a PC in the near future will be asking themselves these questions:

• Can it access the websites and content I want?
• Is it portable (and connected) enough to go where I want to go?
• Does it look cool?

Buying a PC will be a lot like buying a mobile phone… actually, eventually, buying a PC will be just like buying a phone because the device you buy will be both your PC and your phone.

Here are some things you should consider:

• Who considers the OS when buying a phone? (few people)
• How do your web pages and applications look and work on a mobile device?
• Who are your target users and do they want to use your product/content/website when they’re not sitting at their desk?
• Will people feel cool carrying this portable device?

Things are going to change, and they’re going to change faster than a lot of people think. Before you know it, nearly every phone will have a respectable web browser on it. People will just upload their photos and videos from their mobile device and they’ll begin asking themselves, “What is it I need a PC for?”