My only bone of contention might be your final prediction. Let’s just play history games…

Thirty years ago, how many computing devices were in your average household?
Twenty years ago, how many computing devices?
Ten years ago?
Five?
Two?
One?

I think you are perhaps avoiding historical context here. As a guess, I’d bet we could see one to two desktop computers, a netbook, three portable devices (Browser enabled device), and three cellular portable devices per household right now? Assuming a family of say, four people with teens and above?

When we wonder about needs however, what roles does big content currently hold? If Avatar was any indication, let’s assume moderate to large. That said, we have one distribution system that clearly trumps all others (In spite of some serious players such as Amazon.)

_IF_ big content plays a sizable role (and I believe it does, as well as having a sizable chunk of economics supporting the theory), then Free Software is rapidly running the risk of becoming moot.

This isn’t about browsers any more. This is about Kindles, iTunes, and Steam.

Great post.